Three scenarios are currently considered most likely in the Bárðarbunga situation following a meeting of the Advisory Board this morning. Scientists from the IMO and the Institute of Earth Sciences and representatives of the Civil Protection in Iceland attended the meeting.

• The dike could reach the surface of the crust, starting an eruption. In this scenario, it is most likely that the eruption would be near the northern tip of the dike. This would most likely produce an effusive lava eruption with limited explosive, ash-producing activity.

• An alternate scenario would be the dike reaching the surface where a significant part, or all, of the fissure is beneath the glacier. This would most likely produce a flood in Jökulsá á Fjöllum and perhaps explosive, ash-producing activity.

• Other scenarios cannot be excluded. For example, an eruption inside the Bárdarbunga caldera is possible but presently considered to be less likely.

More updates and maps of ceismic activity can be found on the IMO website.

Topic

Bárðarbunga and Holuhraun

Earthquake in Bárðarbunga this morning

• Magnitude 4.4 quake strikes Iceland’s Bárðarbunga
• Size 4.2 quake hits Iceland’s Bárðarbunga volcano
• Bárðarbunga quakes “not uncommon”
• Bárðarbunga continues to rumble

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